The Tipping Point
There comes a time in every real estate market when it tips either in the buyer's favor or the seller's favor. The New York City marketplace has been a buyer's market for the better part of five years. But with the sudden switch in buyer urgency, buyers have been putting property into contract in record numbers since about October 2020. More apartments have gone into escrow/contract than ever before. In early spring, there was a stretch when Manhattan was putting 400 units into contract nearly every week for 20 weeks, which is just incredible given that we just came out of a pandemic.
Last year, pundits were busy predicting a slow, gradual recovery in Spring 2021 as a best-case scenario, but buyers had other plans. We topped out at almost 9,000 units on the market at the beginning of October 2020, but that number has dwindled every month as the pace of demand outweighed supply week in and week out for months and months. However, even though we were charging ahead at a record pace, buyers still turned their noses up at "overpriced" units. Which begs the question, Where is the tipping point between a buyer's and seller's market?
In the case of Manhattan real estate, the tipping point will be where supply gets so low that buyers will tend not to care (or at least care a lot less) where the listing price is. Then, prices will start to rise gradually. We're certainly not there yet. Today, any listing priced above roughly 2019 levels will be shunned by the buyer community and overlooked by interested prospects. The phone will not ring for sellers who wish to push the envelope of market value without buyer public approval first.
But we will reach that tipping point soon! It's only a matter of time before prices start to increase. It could be as soon as this fall; it could take as long as next spring. But it most certainly will happen. As long as buyers stay active in the marketplace — and there are no signs of slowing just yet — prices will rise.
So, if you're a buyer, take advantage, NOW. Secure your property as the tipping point is near.
Sellers: Should you wait? Should you list? A lot will be answered now that it’s after Labor Day. The fall market is underway, and new listings presumably will enter the marketplace. It will be interesting to gauge buyer urgency when there is an abundance of new listings available. Only time will tell in that regard, but as an overall summation of our current marketplace, I would say we're at the precipice of the tipping point into the next seller's market.
What would you like to hear more about? Let me know if there are any topics you wish to see featured in our newsletter!
Local Events
Tribute in Light- 9/11 Memorial
From dusk to dawn, on the evening of September 11, twin beams are presented annually to honor those killed and celebrate the indestructible spirit of NYC. Tribute in Light is a commemorative and symbolic piece of art created six months after 9/11 and every year after. Click here to learn more about the memorial, donate to the Never Forget Fund, and review museum visiting hours.
Broadway is BACK!
Broadway shows will begin again, starting in September. Come see some of Broadway’s classics like Chicago, Hamilton, Moulin Rouge, Hadestown, Wicked, Lion King, Aladdin and so much more. Please note the vaccination, mask, and healthcare guidelines for each theater. Playing schedules for each production could vary; check purchase sites for schedules. Click here to learn about more shows coming back this fall!
The 2021 US Open
August 30 – September 12
One of NYC's favorite tournaments is back. The 2021 US Open will welcome back fans at 100% capacity for the two-week jammed-packed tournament. More information here.
