Monthly Update

The Monthly Update - June 2017

The Jane Street Effect

FAILED TO SELL — the words every owner dreads and hates to hear. Yet, in today’s price-sensitive market, these words are uttered over and over again.

A little over a month ago, we took over a Jane Street condo in the West Village from the largest brokerage house in the city who failed to sell. It had languished on the market for almost six months, so giving the property a complete rebranding and facelift was our first priority. The owner agreed to pay us to completely restage the property and to give it a deep cleaning. We brought in our best photographer, floor plan renderer and copywriter, and we made the property a “new listing” with over 100 days “on market” according to StreetEasy, NYC’s No. 1 public real estate website.  We got Compass’ public relations team to get a some press on the unit, and we went ahead with the relaunch. But, there was the issue of price. The property had been listed for $3.395 million. Clearly, we had to bring it to market with an improved price, so we all agreed that  $3.25 million  was a fair market value with a little room for negotiation. Just a bit lower than our predecessor’s asking price, but low enough to spark renewed interest — and that it did.

Over the next three weeks, we brought in over 50 buyers to the property, but alas no offers. It would seem the market had rejected the new asking price, again! But this time, the owner’s agents took action. Instead of letting the property sit there, the market forced us to adjust. The owner was convinced just a small adjustment would do for now, and if that didn’t work we’d move the price again in three more weeks. There was just no way that was healthy for the life of the listing if we wanted to sell it for top-of-the-market value. With much debate we adjusted the price down to $2.995 million and immediately got three offers: one below the asking and two just above.

We commenced with a best and final and signed a contract a week later for $3.15 million all cash. Why didn’t one of the original 50 interested buyers offer $2.95 million when we were at $3.25 million? We could have easily settled on a price of roughly $3.15 million then. This is today’s market — ultra price-sensitive — and this is what is leading to massive days on market for some listings or the dreaded failed to sell label for others.


Find your property’s sweet spot, and the market will respond genuinely. It doesn’t care how long you’ve been on the market or for what price. Once you find the right number, your property will  have the Jane Street Effect!

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The Monthly Update - May 2017

Which markets are better for real estate sales? Historically, spring markets have always the been the stronger market. That being said, over the past three years, I have personally noticed a larger lag between the markets than we are normally accustomed to. In 2014, the spring was strong, and fall, while a bit slower, maneuvered itself and built up to record-smashing Spring 2015.

That hot Spring of 2015 fell flat by August and never recovered after Labor Day. Fall 2015 failed to live up to brokers’ predictions and the lofty sellers’ prices that had spiked earlier that year. And while that downtrend creeped only to the end of 2015 (especially in the luxury markets) and moved its way into 2016, which was a low point for many price-points, late Spring 2016 showed us the most promise of that year.

Fall 2016 was very difficult for many price-points, and now in 2017 after contentious election, a record-setting Wall Street surge and interests rates that are defying normal logic and staying incredibly low, we are seeing many price-points come roaring back. Bidding wars are now common again. Buyers’ interests in the market is white hot. The only segment  left out in our 2017 strong spring market  is the luxury sector. Having a few good weeks early in 2017, it is still highly competitive for sellers with lots of luxury market new development and resale to compete with. And there is more yet is still to arrive.

Price is king in the sector. That said, sellers seem to be holding out and for as much as they can. The average days on market for three-bedroom condos on the Upper West Side, according to StreetEasy.com, is 293 days. But overall, the Hoffman team is seeing record numbers and a strong bounce back so far in Spring 2017. What remains for the rest of this year is completely unpredictable. History would say it could be slow …  and yet, IF the Trump tax plan passes, or is even perceived to have a good chance of passing, that could rev up the markets again for another huge push this fall. That lag might be over.

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Press Bulletin 

 

Compass Acquires Montauk's Oldest Boutique Real Estate Firm
Bloomberg TV  | Read Full Article

The Monthly Update - April 2017

So, where is the market headed?

This is the question on the mind of every buyer and seller in the market today. On the one hand, there are plenty of encouraging signs from all over the media and blogosphere. The broker-coveted Oshlan Luxury Market Report, for example, noted last week that 330 contracts at the $4 million-plus price point were signed in the first quarter, a 33 percent increase over the same period in 2016. But (and there always seems to be a "but" in this market), the average days on market is over 390 days with a 7 percent drop from the original asking price. Sellers were probably willing to negotiate even further given the average days the properties spent on the market in this price point.

Where the high end market goes the rest will follow, right? Not necessarily. We are finding our higher end listings, while popular with appointments, are a bit slower to receive offers given the amount of inventory, again, that's borne out by Oshlan reported average days on market. This is in stark contrast to our "affordable" inventory, which can see as many as 18-20 buyers at each open house and offers within the first or second week. Even though we saw the Fed vote to raise interest rates last month, there was actually a slight dip in rates at the consumer level, which is a likely a contributing factor for the strong response for the more affordably priced homes in Manhattan and Brooklyn. Well, that and the fact that inventory in that sector is limited and not likely to grow any time soon.

Whether high-end or affordable, there is no real answer to the question, "So, where is the market headed?" But — and I’ve harped on this a thousand times before — the current market is so price sensitive that the placement of your asking price relative to other listings in the area can be the difference of selling in 3 days or 300 days.

Looking Back At What Closed...

The 2,649 total closings in the first quarter was down 11% year-over-year. This decrease was related to weak contract activity in 4Q16 (down 12% Y-o-Y), which was attributable to high asking prices and the uncertainty regarding the U.S. presidential election. New development closings continued to decline this quarter (down 20% Y-o-Y), though it should be noted that they are not indicative of the current market due to their delayed and often clustered closing schedules. The median closing price of condos decreased 6% year-over-year to $1.7M but the median closing price of co-ops increased slightly by 1% to $778K.

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Press Bulletin

Compass Launches The Pinterest Of Real Estate
Forbes |  Read Full Article

Modernizing R.E. Through Tech
Bloomberg TV | Video  (starts at 38.56)

Introducing Collections — real estate’s only visual workspace. Built by Compass, this new tool streamlines your property hunt. Check it out HERE or contact us today for a collection of hand-selected properties!

Hoffman Team Active Listings

The Monthly Update - March 2017

As the U.S stock market continues its steady climb to as-yet unexplored heights, real estate brokers are finally starting to see the fruits of the upward trajectory in our day-to-day activity of buying and selling New York City property.

Leading with the luxury market, the Oshlan Luxury Market Report, which focuses on properties at the $4 million mark and above, noted that February 2017 was the second strongest February on record for contract signings. The bulk of those luxury market contracts were in a sweet spot between $4 million and $6 million, specifically.

The Hoffman Team at Compass, indeed felt the same surge in business with 10 contracts signed in February. We are also seeing an increased number of online website views of our listings — a good indicator of future business — and at the water cooler, other agents are talking about a general buzz industrywide.

Is it the Trump effect? Is spring finally in the air? Is it because the Fed all but guaranteed that interest rates will be given a hard look during their March meeting? I'd say all of the above are, at last, bringing buyers to the point of purchase, so let's all ride this general wave of optimism while it lasts, shall we?

But alas, there are future hurdles ahead for markets around the word. Take a look at France's elections in late April, for example. Another Nationalist is leading in the polls, and if Marine Le Pen wins, there could be another blow to the EU as she would like to go the way of Great Britain and exit (Frexit?). And, our own Fed has given us mixed singles as to what exactly they intend to do with rates over the long haul.

These type of pluses and minuses point to a general rule that one cannot look too far into the future. It's best to just capitalize on what is happening right now, which is cautiously positive if you are in the real estate market.

Just Released

COMPASS Collections

Introducing Collections — real estate’s only visual workspace. Built by Compass, this new tool streamlines your property hunt. Check it out HERE or contact us today for a collection of hand-selected properties!

Real Estate Is Latest Target for Would-Be Disrupters


WSJ|  Read Full Article

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The Monthly Update - February 2017

With one month under our belts, we're seeing a brisk start to the new year, and all indicators are looking positive for a robust 2017 in the New York City real estate market.

Our new administration's plans to deregulate and cut taxes have Wall Street — and pretty much all other key economic indicators — predicting continued growth for business, and the Dow finally topped the much anticipated 20,000 mark in the last full week of January.

Gordon Gollob, managing director at Compass’s world headquarters in New York, said he’s seeing (dare we say it) "bidding wars" back on the table for apartments priced in the $2 million to $3 million range. Further solidifying the positive press we’ve been seeing recently, in the first week of January, the weekly luxury market report from Olshan Realty tracked 50 contracts signed at$4 million or higher, matching the record set back in 2014. But, as our market still pulls itself out of the doldrums of 2016, some wavering is to be expected, and the third week of January saw the lowest number contracts signed at $4 million or higher — only three more than the slowest third week of January on record. As the saying goes: Two steps forward, one step back.

While things do seem to be outpacing 2016, many in the industry still feel the current market climate is a shifting one and that only well-priced properties, marketed strongly and effectively, will reap the benefits being forecasted by the elite market indicators of the world.

 

 

Now Out

 

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Think You Know What Your Home Is Worth?
 

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The Numbers
↑815

In Manhattan January saw 1,262 new properties come to the market, which is an increase over December's 447 new listings. 

Monthly Update - January 2017

Happy New Year!

The election dust has settled, the holidays have passed and a new year has begun. We bid adieu to our current president, and shortly, will inaugurate a new one. But before we plunge headlong into the rest of 2017 — sure to be an interesting year — let's pause and take a look back at the end of 2016.

Compass recently released its Q4 2016 Manhattan Market Report, and the results show a marketplace in flux and influenced by real-world events, namely the election and the Fed's long-expected decision to raise interest rates. Some key findings from the report include:

  • Overall, closings were down year-over-year, but much of that slowdown might be attributable to a collective holding of breath before the election. Compass data finds that there were 24 percent more contracts signed in the four weeks after the election (837) than in the four weeks before the election (677).
  • Inventory, especially in the condo market, continues to be out of pace with current consumer demand with units priced above $3 million comprising 29 percent of total inventory, but only 15 percent of signed contracts.
  • Asking and closing prices continued to trend up at a significant pace, meaning that while total annual closing numbers were down from 2015, total sales volume was down a mere 3 percent for 2016 ($24.4 billion) compared to 2015 ($25.2 billion).

While post-election activity ended the year on the upswing, the potential impact of the new administration leaves us with more questions than answers, making it more important than ever to make smart, informed real estate choices in the coming months.


For more information, download the full report and for instant access to real-time market data any time of year, download the Compass Markets for iOS app.

Stay Tuned, Coming January 17th....

    Hot Off The Press:

Compass Expands In Miami; Acquires Local Firm
City Biz List |  Read Full Article

Billion-Dollar Trio: Here's a look at NYC's unicorns of 2016
New York Business Journal |  Read Full Article

"Compass is building the first modern real estate platform, pairing the industry's top talent with technology to make the search and sell experience intelligent and seamless. "


As part of our promise to offer a more intelligent and seamless real estate experience, we’ve launched Market Insights HERE. You can gain timely insights about your local market by scrolling down the page and entering your ZIP code.
 

With Market Insights, here’s what we’re offering:

  • Gain the following high-level insights based on your ZIP code
    • Percent change in home sales for the previous two quarters
    • Trends in home sales over the past eight quarters
    • Pricing patterns for properties per square foot
  • Feel free to share the report by email address or even post it to your social networks

The Monthly Update - December 2016

 

With President-Elect Trump set to take office in less than 50 days, he and his transition team are well underway in selecting the cabinet and key staff positions. In the meantime, stock markets around the world are betting big that large, publicly traded companies will benefit hugely from a Trump administration. As a result, investors are dumping bonds for stocks, which in turn is driving up interest rates.
What are we real estate professionals going to see at ground level, in the day-to-day business of selling or buying your most prized assets?

Historically, the New York City real estate market follows the trends of Wall Street. When the Streeters feel bullish, they tend to not only buy stocks, but real estate as well. At a first glance, we should assume that this will benefit our local housing market. In fact, the housing market saw strong growth nationally in both September and October.

Here in the city, the day after the election, I saw a brief pause and then a full-steam-ahead, petal-to-the-metal rush forward. Buyers are moving ahead at a strong clip to beat interest rate increases and get their rates locked in as soon as possible. There has also been an international influx over the last few weeks from Asia and even from some Russian investors. From first-time buyers to new investors to seasoned professionals, I'm seeing tremendous activity in requests, offers and pushes to get deals closed before the end of the year. In some cases, I am seeing more negotiability, seller concessions and creative offers being made but deals are proceeding nonetheless.

It seems the short-term Trump effect has been a strong jolt in the arm for the real estate market, with more than a little watchfulness. The long-term effect, meanwhile, is anyone's guess. Any predictions on what the local, national and international economies will do after Trump takes office is mere speculation at this point. Is it a wait-and-see or a bullish push to jump in?

Wall Street’s betting big. Will you?

November's Inventory Numbers

The Numbers:

On average November saw a decrease of 23% over October's inventory. The three-bedroom and more category saw the largest decrease of just over 30%. 

"Compass is building the first modern real estate platform, pairing the industry's top talent with technology to make the search and sell experience intelligent and seamless. "

As part of our promise to offer a more intelligent and seamless real estate experience, we’ve launched Market Insights HERE. You can gain timely insights about your local market by scrolling down the page and entering your ZIP code.

With Market Insights, here’s what we’re offering:

  • Gain the following high-level insights based on your ZIP code:
  • Percent change in home sales for the previous two quarters
  • Trends in home sales over the past eight quarters
  • Pricing patterns for properties per square foot
  • Feel free to share the report by email address or even post it to your social networks

Hot Off The Press!

Penthouse in peril? Despite high-profile price cuts, NYC luxury digs still attractive
NY Business Journal |  Read Full Article

Hoffman Team Press:
A Fine Vintage
The Compass Quarterly |  Read Full Article

 

Do You Think You Know What Your Home Is Worth?
Lets see about that, click HERE and receive a comprehensive up-to-date CMA Valuation Report.

Out TODAY!

FRESH OFF THE PRESS TODAY, THE GATHERING ISSUE OF THE COMPASS QUARTERLY.

Request Your Copy HERE

Monthly Update - November 2016

October started with depressing news that the Q3 New York real estate numbers were 15 to 20 percent lower year over year compared to Q3 2015, according to a Bloomberg article and numerous reports.

This caused an already skittish September to decline into an outright dead first two weeks of October. But as news of a dead and/or dying New York City market spread, buyers picked up on the trend and started to get active again and fast! It was quite interesting to see the talk around the water cooler go from, "How are you finding this market?" to "Isn’t this market great?!"

I do, however, have to balance this renewed interest from sellers with the fact that prices and transaction numbers are still lower, but at least this isn’t the stand still that was happening in September and the early part of October.

Was it election blues or something else that is triggering buyers to hold off and sellers to panic a bit? Hard to tell, and although the market is moving again, this year's unpredictable twists and turns make November and December’s performance anyone's guess. Interest rates have been inching up as of late, and although it's unlikely the Fed will raise rates at this week's meeting, a rate hike will come eventually.

The markets seem delicate, like anything might set them into a tailspin. But always remember, "Where there is a will, there is a buyer!" Meaning, if you're a seller, and you want to sell, buyers are out there competing for property. And if you're a buyer, sellers are out on the market ready to go. And I'm out there encouraging transactions at every turn, because the fact remains that New York City real estate, over a 10-year period, beats Wall Street by double-digit returns on average.

So, get out there and become a property owner — it’s well worth it, even when things may seem shaky.

Just Released! 

Q3 2016 Manhattan Report

October's Inventory Numbers

Hot Off The Press!

COMPASS Q3 Market Report
Request A Copy HERE

From a 47% increase in September, October saw a dip of new inventory of 25% month over month. However only 7% of October's new inventory went into contract over Septembers 18%.

The Hoffman Team's Active Listings

Two Compass agents just sold an amazing $21.8M property in SF’s Pacific Heights. 

 

 

Team Press

  • Fit to Print: An Industrial Chic Aesthetic in the West Village
    New York Observer |  Read Full Article

Out TODAY!

 

Fresh off the press today, The Gathering Issue of The Compass Quarterly.

 

Request Your Copy HERE

 

 

Think You Know What Your Home Is Worth?
Lets see about that, click HERE and receive a comprehensive up-to-date CMA Valuation Report.

Monthly Update - June 2016

Bidding Wars?!

Not in a "down" or "changing" market. Well, not so fast!

What kind of market are we in, anyway? "Correcting," "down," "changing," " hot," "competitive," "buyers'" or "sellers'" — You pick the adjective or type of market that best describes your own experience. I’ve had buyers lose properties in bidding wars and others get 20 percent off the asking price. I've had sellers accept an offer 15 percent off their asking price, and sellers who have signed contracts at 10 percent over the asking price — all in the same week!

Let’s take a step back. Where were the asking prices of these properties? Were they condos or co-ops? Where were they located: Brooklyn or Murray Hill? All of these questions are very relevant to how the market will treat either your sales listing or your purchase and your experience in this [insert your favorite adjective] market. I’ve reported in the past at #thetaleoftwomarkets, and this trend seems to be continuing. Maybe this is the new normal, if you can call it that.  

 

Is Your Broker Leaving Money on the Table?

Co-brokering your most valued asset could be the difference between a best offer and leaving cash on the table!

James Nelson

A friend and fellow real estate powerhouse James Nelson at Cushman Wakefield reported last month on the power of the co-broke. I felt that it’s such an underrated topic that it needed to be given more attention. The brokerage community is such a powerful resource, with billions in pre-approved lending from thousands of well-qualified buyers represented by hungry buyer agents — who can’t get into your listing! It bewilders me that sellers' brokers would do a huge disservice to their sellers by blacklisting the brokerage community and cutting their sellers out of thousands, possibly hundreds of thousands of dollars, and they do it just to line their own pockets with 2 or 3 percent more commission.

"When fees and buyer pools are shared, properties generate a higher demand and price, resulting in the most value for everyone involved."  

These actions are from an, albeit, small contingent of rogue brokers, but they are large and powerful enough to be ultra-annoying and utterly confusing to this agent. Why they are even in business is beyond me. The actions of these few agents are weakening our industry and giving brokers a bad name. Most of all, they cheat their owners out of money.

Owners, listen up! Cell phone photos, no floor plans and no marketing plan to the brokerage community will cost you money. Hire the best and most professional agents you can find. Make sure they have a well-proven plan. The little black book of hidden listings is long past.

COMPASS News:

  • Compass is now in Aspen. 
  • Compass is now #3 in Washington D.C.
  • The Compass Quarterly is here

Hoffman Team Active Listings

The Hoffman Team Has Gone Social

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Monthly Update - May 2016

The Tides of NYC Real Estate Flow — Back and Forth

For all the doom and gloom that has been reported by this agent and most, if not all, firms, news agencies and other brokers, the national real estate market posted a 5.1 percent gain in March, according to the National Association of Realtors, back from February’s 7.1 percent drop. Preliminary reports are also telling us that gains are expected to continue through spring.

Locally, the buzz around the water cooler at real estate brokerage houses and real estate attorneys' offices is that momentum is swinging towards the seller, just a bit, and the $3 million-plus segment of the market is seeing a gradual resurgence.

But why? Did sellers finally drop their price enough to intrigue the buyers? Is the weather finally nice enough to trigger the spring sale market? Was the stock market’s bounce back to over 18,000 bringing more buying power to the table?

Yes, yes and yes.

Sellers got smart, and some got desperate coming out of the long slow winter, and reduced their prices. The spring weather always has a positive effect on the Manhattan real estate sales market, and lately, it has been gorgeous out during Sunday open houses. And who doesn’t like a robust stock market to fuel a strong real estate surge in Manhattan?

But all tides flow back to sea, and when our water recedes again, what will we find? For starters, the super-luxury market is still very sluggish, if not completely stopped, and if you haven’t looked up at the Manhattan skyline recently, there are more cranes than ever before. So, this huge tidal wave of unsold, new development property is about hit our shores. Oh yeah, and then there's the presidential election this fall, China’s big economic slow-down and the Fed's ever-looming rate hike.

For now, let us enjoy these waters, where sellers are enjoying a brisk spring and buyers are feeling confident. As for tomorrow, well, tides have a habit of changing. Back and forth.

COMPASS News:

  • Compass is now in Aspen. 
  • Just in time for summer, we’ve rolled out our Neighborhood Guides for eight East End enclaves!
  • The Compass Quarterly is here

Hoffman Team Active Sales Listings

(Plus $44 Million In Listings Coming Later This May)

Market Data in Real Time

As the only brokerage firm with a real-time Markets app, Compass is changing the way we thing about quarterly reporting. Today I am excited to introduce a new quarterly deliverable called "Manhattan Neighborhood Insights." With information taken directly from the Compass Markets App, we have highlighted overall trends and the performance of specific neighborhoods. 

Download the Compass Markets app directly from the app store for more real-time market data. CLICK HERE

The Monthly Update | April 2016

New York State of Mind

In January, the New York Department of Finance reported that, for the first time in history, the total property value for New York City has risen over the trillion-dollar mark. Manhattan’s surging market combined with an incredible construction pace in Brooklyn and Queens brought total market value of taxable property to $1.072 trillion, a more than 10 percent increase for the 2017 fiscal year.

These types of numbers do and will encourage the average seller of an averaged priced property in Manhattan (which happens to be about $1.75 million, by the way) to price his or her apartment as if they were solely responsible for launching property values over the trillion-dollar mark. Sellers must, instead, do themselves a favor, and unburden themselves from this temptation. More and more, the pendulum seems to be swinging to the buyer side as the market adjusts itself after a rough start to the year.

I had Barry Weidenbaum, partner at real estate law firm Weidenbaum & Harari, in to speak to the team recently, and he shared what he is seeing in the market. His outlook is, of course, very different from a real estate professional's point of view, but a real estate attorney's perspectives is valuable and can shed light on an ever-changing market, enabling us to adjust quickly and nimbly, before the market does it without us. He stated that, while in 2015 the NON-mortgage contingency was commonplace in deals, the mortgage contingency is being found in deal contracts more and more as 2016 unfolds. Sellers accepting mortgage contingency could be the begging signs of a shift in the market from seller to buyer. Of course, no one knows for sure, but we are all noticing a slower super-luxury market, which is now starting to affect the luxury market (properties valued at over $3 million). The $1 to $3 million category is still strong, but you better price your two-bedroom correctly in the market.

I visited an owner last week who put his two-bedroom co-op on the market in Lenox Hill matching the lowest priced listing on the market at the time, rather than trying to price the home too high. The bulk of the 40-plus two-bedroom, two-bathroom homes at the time were priced between $1.5 million and $1.6 million, but by positioning his property at such a compelling number — knowing that his layout, finishes and overall quality were on par with his $1.5 to $1.6 million competitors — he knew the market would have a huge reaction to his listing. And it did: He received seven offers the first weekend, and by the time the second open house was finished, he had 11 more offers — three more than expected. From these 14 to 15 offers, the seller brought pendulum back to his side of the market. He accepted a NON-contingent offer over the $1.55-million mark, and he controlled his own destiny.

The lesson? Stay ahead of the market and make the market react to you. It’s the best way to move property in the current market. And, if you're a buyer, remember, there are 39 other properties in Lenox Hill that aren't receiving much interest and have nervous owners ready to strike a contingent deal with you.

COMPASS News

  • Park Slope, Williamsburg and Beverly Hills offices have officially opened! Making that 19 offices coast to coast.

 

  • Opening soon in Aspen

 

  • The Compass Quarterly is here

The Hoffman Team Active Listings 

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