Monthly Update

The Monthly Update - February 2017

With one month under our belts, we're seeing a brisk start to the new year, and all indicators are looking positive for a robust 2017 in the New York City real estate market.

Our new administration's plans to deregulate and cut taxes have Wall Street — and pretty much all other key economic indicators — predicting continued growth for business, and the Dow finally topped the much anticipated 20,000 mark in the last full week of January.

Gordon Gollob, managing director at Compass’s world headquarters in New York, said he’s seeing (dare we say it) "bidding wars" back on the table for apartments priced in the $2 million to $3 million range. Further solidifying the positive press we’ve been seeing recently, in the first week of January, the weekly luxury market report from Olshan Realty tracked 50 contracts signed at$4 million or higher, matching the record set back in 2014. But, as our market still pulls itself out of the doldrums of 2016, some wavering is to be expected, and the third week of January saw the lowest number contracts signed at $4 million or higher — only three more than the slowest third week of January on record. As the saying goes: Two steps forward, one step back.

While things do seem to be outpacing 2016, many in the industry still feel the current market climate is a shifting one and that only well-priced properties, marketed strongly and effectively, will reap the benefits being forecasted by the elite market indicators of the world.

 

 

Now Out

 

Download your copy HERE

Think You Know What Your Home Is Worth?
 

Lets see about that, click HERE and receive a comprehensive up-to-date CMA Valuation Report.

The Numbers
↑815

In Manhattan January saw 1,262 new properties come to the market, which is an increase over December's 447 new listings. 

Monthly Update - January 2017

Happy New Year!

The election dust has settled, the holidays have passed and a new year has begun. We bid adieu to our current president, and shortly, will inaugurate a new one. But before we plunge headlong into the rest of 2017 — sure to be an interesting year — let's pause and take a look back at the end of 2016.

Compass recently released its Q4 2016 Manhattan Market Report, and the results show a marketplace in flux and influenced by real-world events, namely the election and the Fed's long-expected decision to raise interest rates. Some key findings from the report include:

  • Overall, closings were down year-over-year, but much of that slowdown might be attributable to a collective holding of breath before the election. Compass data finds that there were 24 percent more contracts signed in the four weeks after the election (837) than in the four weeks before the election (677).
  • Inventory, especially in the condo market, continues to be out of pace with current consumer demand with units priced above $3 million comprising 29 percent of total inventory, but only 15 percent of signed contracts.
  • Asking and closing prices continued to trend up at a significant pace, meaning that while total annual closing numbers were down from 2015, total sales volume was down a mere 3 percent for 2016 ($24.4 billion) compared to 2015 ($25.2 billion).

While post-election activity ended the year on the upswing, the potential impact of the new administration leaves us with more questions than answers, making it more important than ever to make smart, informed real estate choices in the coming months.


For more information, download the full report and for instant access to real-time market data any time of year, download the Compass Markets for iOS app.

Stay Tuned, Coming January 17th....

    Hot Off The Press:

Compass Expands In Miami; Acquires Local Firm
City Biz List |  Read Full Article

Billion-Dollar Trio: Here's a look at NYC's unicorns of 2016
New York Business Journal |  Read Full Article

"Compass is building the first modern real estate platform, pairing the industry's top talent with technology to make the search and sell experience intelligent and seamless. "


As part of our promise to offer a more intelligent and seamless real estate experience, we’ve launched Market Insights HERE. You can gain timely insights about your local market by scrolling down the page and entering your ZIP code.
 

With Market Insights, here’s what we’re offering:

  • Gain the following high-level insights based on your ZIP code
    • Percent change in home sales for the previous two quarters
    • Trends in home sales over the past eight quarters
    • Pricing patterns for properties per square foot
  • Feel free to share the report by email address or even post it to your social networks

The Monthly Update - December 2016

 

With President-Elect Trump set to take office in less than 50 days, he and his transition team are well underway in selecting the cabinet and key staff positions. In the meantime, stock markets around the world are betting big that large, publicly traded companies will benefit hugely from a Trump administration. As a result, investors are dumping bonds for stocks, which in turn is driving up interest rates.
What are we real estate professionals going to see at ground level, in the day-to-day business of selling or buying your most prized assets?

Historically, the New York City real estate market follows the trends of Wall Street. When the Streeters feel bullish, they tend to not only buy stocks, but real estate as well. At a first glance, we should assume that this will benefit our local housing market. In fact, the housing market saw strong growth nationally in both September and October.

Here in the city, the day after the election, I saw a brief pause and then a full-steam-ahead, petal-to-the-metal rush forward. Buyers are moving ahead at a strong clip to beat interest rate increases and get their rates locked in as soon as possible. There has also been an international influx over the last few weeks from Asia and even from some Russian investors. From first-time buyers to new investors to seasoned professionals, I'm seeing tremendous activity in requests, offers and pushes to get deals closed before the end of the year. In some cases, I am seeing more negotiability, seller concessions and creative offers being made but deals are proceeding nonetheless.

It seems the short-term Trump effect has been a strong jolt in the arm for the real estate market, with more than a little watchfulness. The long-term effect, meanwhile, is anyone's guess. Any predictions on what the local, national and international economies will do after Trump takes office is mere speculation at this point. Is it a wait-and-see or a bullish push to jump in?

Wall Street’s betting big. Will you?

November's Inventory Numbers

The Numbers:

On average November saw a decrease of 23% over October's inventory. The three-bedroom and more category saw the largest decrease of just over 30%. 

"Compass is building the first modern real estate platform, pairing the industry's top talent with technology to make the search and sell experience intelligent and seamless. "

As part of our promise to offer a more intelligent and seamless real estate experience, we’ve launched Market Insights HERE. You can gain timely insights about your local market by scrolling down the page and entering your ZIP code.

With Market Insights, here’s what we’re offering:

  • Gain the following high-level insights based on your ZIP code:
  • Percent change in home sales for the previous two quarters
  • Trends in home sales over the past eight quarters
  • Pricing patterns for properties per square foot
  • Feel free to share the report by email address or even post it to your social networks

Hot Off The Press!

Penthouse in peril? Despite high-profile price cuts, NYC luxury digs still attractive
NY Business Journal |  Read Full Article

Hoffman Team Press:
A Fine Vintage
The Compass Quarterly |  Read Full Article

 

Do You Think You Know What Your Home Is Worth?
Lets see about that, click HERE and receive a comprehensive up-to-date CMA Valuation Report.

Out TODAY!

FRESH OFF THE PRESS TODAY, THE GATHERING ISSUE OF THE COMPASS QUARTERLY.

Request Your Copy HERE

Monthly Update - November 2016

October started with depressing news that the Q3 New York real estate numbers were 15 to 20 percent lower year over year compared to Q3 2015, according to a Bloomberg article and numerous reports.

This caused an already skittish September to decline into an outright dead first two weeks of October. But as news of a dead and/or dying New York City market spread, buyers picked up on the trend and started to get active again and fast! It was quite interesting to see the talk around the water cooler go from, "How are you finding this market?" to "Isn’t this market great?!"

I do, however, have to balance this renewed interest from sellers with the fact that prices and transaction numbers are still lower, but at least this isn’t the stand still that was happening in September and the early part of October.

Was it election blues or something else that is triggering buyers to hold off and sellers to panic a bit? Hard to tell, and although the market is moving again, this year's unpredictable twists and turns make November and December’s performance anyone's guess. Interest rates have been inching up as of late, and although it's unlikely the Fed will raise rates at this week's meeting, a rate hike will come eventually.

The markets seem delicate, like anything might set them into a tailspin. But always remember, "Where there is a will, there is a buyer!" Meaning, if you're a seller, and you want to sell, buyers are out there competing for property. And if you're a buyer, sellers are out on the market ready to go. And I'm out there encouraging transactions at every turn, because the fact remains that New York City real estate, over a 10-year period, beats Wall Street by double-digit returns on average.

So, get out there and become a property owner — it’s well worth it, even when things may seem shaky.

Just Released! 

Q3 2016 Manhattan Report

October's Inventory Numbers

Hot Off The Press!

COMPASS Q3 Market Report
Request A Copy HERE

From a 47% increase in September, October saw a dip of new inventory of 25% month over month. However only 7% of October's new inventory went into contract over Septembers 18%.

The Hoffman Team's Active Listings

Two Compass agents just sold an amazing $21.8M property in SF’s Pacific Heights. 

 

 

Team Press

  • Fit to Print: An Industrial Chic Aesthetic in the West Village
    New York Observer |  Read Full Article

Out TODAY!

 

Fresh off the press today, The Gathering Issue of The Compass Quarterly.

 

Request Your Copy HERE

 

 

Think You Know What Your Home Is Worth?
Lets see about that, click HERE and receive a comprehensive up-to-date CMA Valuation Report.

Monthly Update - June 2016

Bidding Wars?!

Not in a "down" or "changing" market. Well, not so fast!

What kind of market are we in, anyway? "Correcting," "down," "changing," " hot," "competitive," "buyers'" or "sellers'" — You pick the adjective or type of market that best describes your own experience. I’ve had buyers lose properties in bidding wars and others get 20 percent off the asking price. I've had sellers accept an offer 15 percent off their asking price, and sellers who have signed contracts at 10 percent over the asking price — all in the same week!

Let’s take a step back. Where were the asking prices of these properties? Were they condos or co-ops? Where were they located: Brooklyn or Murray Hill? All of these questions are very relevant to how the market will treat either your sales listing or your purchase and your experience in this [insert your favorite adjective] market. I’ve reported in the past at #thetaleoftwomarkets, and this trend seems to be continuing. Maybe this is the new normal, if you can call it that.  

 

Is Your Broker Leaving Money on the Table?

Co-brokering your most valued asset could be the difference between a best offer and leaving cash on the table!

James Nelson

A friend and fellow real estate powerhouse James Nelson at Cushman Wakefield reported last month on the power of the co-broke. I felt that it’s such an underrated topic that it needed to be given more attention. The brokerage community is such a powerful resource, with billions in pre-approved lending from thousands of well-qualified buyers represented by hungry buyer agents — who can’t get into your listing! It bewilders me that sellers' brokers would do a huge disservice to their sellers by blacklisting the brokerage community and cutting their sellers out of thousands, possibly hundreds of thousands of dollars, and they do it just to line their own pockets with 2 or 3 percent more commission.

"When fees and buyer pools are shared, properties generate a higher demand and price, resulting in the most value for everyone involved."  

These actions are from an, albeit, small contingent of rogue brokers, but they are large and powerful enough to be ultra-annoying and utterly confusing to this agent. Why they are even in business is beyond me. The actions of these few agents are weakening our industry and giving brokers a bad name. Most of all, they cheat their owners out of money.

Owners, listen up! Cell phone photos, no floor plans and no marketing plan to the brokerage community will cost you money. Hire the best and most professional agents you can find. Make sure they have a well-proven plan. The little black book of hidden listings is long past.

COMPASS News:

  • Compass is now in Aspen. 
  • Compass is now #3 in Washington D.C.
  • The Compass Quarterly is here

Hoffman Team Active Listings

The Hoffman Team Has Gone Social

Request More Information

Monthly Update - May 2016

The Tides of NYC Real Estate Flow — Back and Forth

For all the doom and gloom that has been reported by this agent and most, if not all, firms, news agencies and other brokers, the national real estate market posted a 5.1 percent gain in March, according to the National Association of Realtors, back from February’s 7.1 percent drop. Preliminary reports are also telling us that gains are expected to continue through spring.

Locally, the buzz around the water cooler at real estate brokerage houses and real estate attorneys' offices is that momentum is swinging towards the seller, just a bit, and the $3 million-plus segment of the market is seeing a gradual resurgence.

But why? Did sellers finally drop their price enough to intrigue the buyers? Is the weather finally nice enough to trigger the spring sale market? Was the stock market’s bounce back to over 18,000 bringing more buying power to the table?

Yes, yes and yes.

Sellers got smart, and some got desperate coming out of the long slow winter, and reduced their prices. The spring weather always has a positive effect on the Manhattan real estate sales market, and lately, it has been gorgeous out during Sunday open houses. And who doesn’t like a robust stock market to fuel a strong real estate surge in Manhattan?

But all tides flow back to sea, and when our water recedes again, what will we find? For starters, the super-luxury market is still very sluggish, if not completely stopped, and if you haven’t looked up at the Manhattan skyline recently, there are more cranes than ever before. So, this huge tidal wave of unsold, new development property is about hit our shores. Oh yeah, and then there's the presidential election this fall, China’s big economic slow-down and the Fed's ever-looming rate hike.

For now, let us enjoy these waters, where sellers are enjoying a brisk spring and buyers are feeling confident. As for tomorrow, well, tides have a habit of changing. Back and forth.

COMPASS News:

  • Compass is now in Aspen. 
  • Just in time for summer, we’ve rolled out our Neighborhood Guides for eight East End enclaves!
  • The Compass Quarterly is here

Hoffman Team Active Sales Listings

(Plus $44 Million In Listings Coming Later This May)

Market Data in Real Time

As the only brokerage firm with a real-time Markets app, Compass is changing the way we thing about quarterly reporting. Today I am excited to introduce a new quarterly deliverable called "Manhattan Neighborhood Insights." With information taken directly from the Compass Markets App, we have highlighted overall trends and the performance of specific neighborhoods. 

Download the Compass Markets app directly from the app store for more real-time market data. CLICK HERE

The Monthly Update | April 2016

New York State of Mind

In January, the New York Department of Finance reported that, for the first time in history, the total property value for New York City has risen over the trillion-dollar mark. Manhattan’s surging market combined with an incredible construction pace in Brooklyn and Queens brought total market value of taxable property to $1.072 trillion, a more than 10 percent increase for the 2017 fiscal year.

These types of numbers do and will encourage the average seller of an averaged priced property in Manhattan (which happens to be about $1.75 million, by the way) to price his or her apartment as if they were solely responsible for launching property values over the trillion-dollar mark. Sellers must, instead, do themselves a favor, and unburden themselves from this temptation. More and more, the pendulum seems to be swinging to the buyer side as the market adjusts itself after a rough start to the year.

I had Barry Weidenbaum, partner at real estate law firm Weidenbaum & Harari, in to speak to the team recently, and he shared what he is seeing in the market. His outlook is, of course, very different from a real estate professional's point of view, but a real estate attorney's perspectives is valuable and can shed light on an ever-changing market, enabling us to adjust quickly and nimbly, before the market does it without us. He stated that, while in 2015 the NON-mortgage contingency was commonplace in deals, the mortgage contingency is being found in deal contracts more and more as 2016 unfolds. Sellers accepting mortgage contingency could be the begging signs of a shift in the market from seller to buyer. Of course, no one knows for sure, but we are all noticing a slower super-luxury market, which is now starting to affect the luxury market (properties valued at over $3 million). The $1 to $3 million category is still strong, but you better price your two-bedroom correctly in the market.

I visited an owner last week who put his two-bedroom co-op on the market in Lenox Hill matching the lowest priced listing on the market at the time, rather than trying to price the home too high. The bulk of the 40-plus two-bedroom, two-bathroom homes at the time were priced between $1.5 million and $1.6 million, but by positioning his property at such a compelling number — knowing that his layout, finishes and overall quality were on par with his $1.5 to $1.6 million competitors — he knew the market would have a huge reaction to his listing. And it did: He received seven offers the first weekend, and by the time the second open house was finished, he had 11 more offers — three more than expected. From these 14 to 15 offers, the seller brought pendulum back to his side of the market. He accepted a NON-contingent offer over the $1.55-million mark, and he controlled his own destiny.

The lesson? Stay ahead of the market and make the market react to you. It’s the best way to move property in the current market. And, if you're a buyer, remember, there are 39 other properties in Lenox Hill that aren't receiving much interest and have nervous owners ready to strike a contingent deal with you.

COMPASS News

  • Park Slope, Williamsburg and Beverly Hills offices have officially opened! Making that 19 offices coast to coast.

 

  • Opening soon in Aspen

 

  • The Compass Quarterly is here

The Hoffman Team Active Listings 

Sign Up For Our Digital Monthly Update

Your new home awaits.