October 2019 Vs. October 2020 Vs. October 2021
I looked back at our team’s October monthly updates for the last three years to see what has changed and what has stayed the same. I was hoping to (possibly) use the past to create some predictions and road maps for moving forward through this fall, the coming winter and the future spring market in New York City, but when I looked back, It was quite interesting to see where we were and where we are now...
In October 2019, we wrote, "Big money on pause."
In October 2020, we wrote, "Uncertainty is the enemy of many scenarios."
In 2019, big money may have been on pause, but this year, we just broke $11.3 billion in the luxury market, crushing the previous record of $11.2 billion set back in 2014. Big money is definitely not on pause. In fact, the luxury sector set a record in 2021 with over 20 weeks of 30-plus contracts signed at $4 million and above. The townhouse market woke up as buyers desired privacy, safety and autonomy during COVID.
In 2020, uncertainty may have been commonplace, but not anymore. Buyers in 2021 are very certain that they want to buy in Manhattan and Brooklyn. They crushed contract signed/pending sales records with over 5,200 units in contract at one point during the summer. Buyers also broke records for weekly contract signings. Last spring, the marketplace was putting 400-plus units into contract for several weeks in a row- but this is also because prices were down.
Even before the pandemic, there was hesitation and languishing urgency among buyers. COVID seemed to compound the issue early in 2020, which is to be expected. But that was not the norm for the rest of the country, which experienced a buyer boom during the pandemic. The unexpected turnaround in the Manhattan and Brooklyn real estate markets was a flat-out surprise to just about every professional in the real estate industry. So what can we expect for the remainder of 2021 and beyond? That all depends on whom you ask..
Even though it's been the hottest transacted market in the history of Manhattan/Brooklyn real estate one thing that is certain is that buyers still aren't ready to pay "seller's market" pricing —not just yet anyway. We know sellers are hungrily salivating at the thought of raising prices past 2019 levels but as I've reported time and time again, overall pricing has stagnated, and sellers' prices need to be competitive across most categories to be able to sell and close. However, many (myself included) believe that there will be a time when prices will "pop" but who knows...
Looking back at the last two years of October newsletters, the only thing certain is the unexpected. The next nine months are anyone's guess However, the main take-away is:
If you're a buyer: Take advantage of today's market. If you're a seller:Take advantage of today's market, as there's no certainty in today's real estate future.